Meteorologists around the world are unanimous that we are moving progressively into an El Niño episode. In fact, they are calling it a ‘Super El Niño’ because surface waters of the tropical pacific ocean are about 2 degrees warmer than usual currently.
El Niño episodes occur when the waters of the Central Pacific warm just as Trade Winds of the Equatorial Pacific are weakening. Progressively, the warm waters spread outwards, especially towards the East, past Australia to South America. This is important because under normal circumstances, strong equatorial trade winds blow from east to west off the West coast of South America. This process causes cold, nutrient-rich ocean currents to rise from the sea floor, a process called upwelling.
When trade winds are weak, they cause El Niño. When trade winds are strong, they push warm water towards the west Pacific, which increases upwelling in the east, a process known as La Niña.
When trade winds weaken, there is nothing stopping the eastwards spread of the warm ocean surface water. The warm water pools off the coast of South America, pushing the cold thermocline layer much deeper. Warm water heats the air above it, causing the Pacific convective rain clouds to shift from the west to the central and eastern Pacific. This entire process is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Both El Niño and La Niña change weather conditions across the entire planet. We are exiting a La Niña phase which brough above-average rainfall to Southern Africa and dry conditions for the rest of the continent. This time around, we are expecting to get drought conditions in Southern Africa and above-average rainfall in east Africa. However, a number of other things are happening right now.
The EL Nino phenomenon was first identified by Peruvian fishermen. They noticed that when the waters of the South Pacific warmed, they would catch less anchovies and other fish species. This typically happened around Christmas, and that is why the phenomenon was dubbed El Niño, Spanish for ‘the little boy’.
An increase in extreme weather events.
Not everything that is happening right now can be attributed to the latest El Niño episode. We must remember that Europe is currently baking under a series of heatwaves. That is in part because global temperatures have been rising steadily over the past few decades. The global temperature increase has caused a series of record-breaking heatwaves in Europe and flash floods in Africa (the Sahel region especially). So 2026 is really a case of climate change meets El Niño.
Meteorologists are predicting much hotter conditions that what the world witnessed in 1998/1999, 2015/2016 and even 2023/2024. In Europe, the warmer than average conditions are predicted to last well into February 2027.
Predictions for Africa
The unprecedented heat wave in Europe is a harbinger of tough weather conditions for everybody.
Africa is going to experience two sets of problems: the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) predicts parts of the continent are going to experience warmer, drier conditions between July-September and then cold, wetter episodes from October to January.
They predict “a higher likelihood of above-normal temperatures across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, ”with “a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the critical June–September rainy season, particularly in South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, much of Eritrea, Sudan and western and coastal Kenya” This is a particularly grim warming because this coincides with the period when crops are just about to get ready for harvest. This could potentially reduce harvest quality.
Later in the year, from September-December, above-average precipitation will cause flooding and increase the risk of water-borne diseases. Areas around Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia that saw hot, dry conditions in the crucial second half of the rainy season are going to get storms and flash floods.
This prediction is confirmed by the organisation Assessment Capacities Project, ACAPS’ Global El Niño Overview – which suggests that this year’s El Nino is expected to bring “drought, flooding, landslides, heatwaves, wildfires, crop and animal pests and diseases, and human infectious disease outbreaks (waterborne and vector-borne)” in the affected regions, with “an increase of dengue, malaria, and cholera outbreaks of high concern in several countries across Africa, Asia, and Central and South America”. The countries facing the biggest risk include Burkina Faso, Mali, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan Kenya, Angola, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Madagascar.
Although very little has been said about cyclones, we must remember that the last decade has seen particularly deadly cyclone systems and events around southern Africa. With warmer ocean surface temperatures, countries like South Africa, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe may have to deal with more extreme weather events soon. These countries have had to contend with torrential rains, storms and cyclones every year since the beginning of the 2020s.
Conclusion
There are a number of lessons here. During the heatwaves in the summer of 2026, we have seen frustrated customers come to blows in European supermarkets as people try to buy air conditioners. There have been many warmings that the climate is changing but only a few people were paying attention. That has to change and this means that we have to change the way we build, work, play, travel, etc. Africans in the Sahel for example have always used thick adobe walls in their homes. This keeps their homes about 10 degrees cooler than outdoor temperature. Sahel architecture has many lessons for the world in a time of heating.
Secondly, multilateral processes have to get serious about curbing CO2 emissions. The COP process, which has been captured by the tourism industry, has to seize the mantle of transformation and lead the charge.
